This week’s chart of the week is highlighting the 4+ year highs that Copper made today, however, the rest of the base metal space should not be overlooked as it continues to show relative strength versus the rest of the commodity complex. With that being said, this post is a quick update on our risk management levels and price targets for the rest of the space.
It’s very easy to get caught up in the day to day noise of the market, especially if you’re allowing toxic media content into your life. It’s virtually impossible for us to completely ignore it all, although I do try my best. So, at the very least, we want to be aware of what type of content we’re consuming and the conflicts of interest that are driving it. But another, and much easier way to avoid getting lost is simply by taking a step back. Monthly charts allow us to see the forest through the trees and is one of the most valuable parts of my entire process.
Even if you’re a day trader or short-term swing trader, I think it’s a huge advantage to understand the direction of the underlying trends. For me, who specifically looks out weeks and months, trying to make money this quarter, my monthly candlestick chart review is essential. I can’t begin to tell you how much this has helped me avoid blindly calling tops or bottom fishing in never ending downtrends. It most certainly helps us err in the direction of the underlying trends which, of course, increases our probabilities of success.
We’ll start with the Nifty 50 which has been the strongest of the group as large caps continue to outperform their mid and small-cap counterparts. Prices hit our target near 11,165 in January and have been consolidating since. The uptrend remains intact, however, a neutral approach is best until we’re above that level as a breach of support at 10,100 leaves prices vulnerable to further downside.
Click on the chart to enlarge view. [Read more…]
In this week’s India Chart of the Week I discuss why the equal-weighted Nifty Auto index is suggesting we want to be looking to the sector for opportunities on the long side, despite the overall lack of direction in the cap-weighted index over the last few months. To avoid being redundant I’ll refer you to that post for the full explanation of this thesis and get right into the Auto stocks we want to be buying.
As Technicians we like to use the phrase “the bigger the base, the higher in space” when talking about breakouts from consolidations. Long periods of indecisive price action build a lot of potential energy that is then released once a stock breaks out of its range. This applies to any asset class on any timeframe because the psychology behind the pattern is exactly the same. The weight of the evidence continues to suggest we want to be long equities, so I’ve taken a look through the Nifty Smallcap 250 and identified some of the best bases that are either breaking out or look poised to over the intermediate-term. [Read more…]
As Technicians we like to use the phrase “the bigger the base, the higher in space” when talking about breakouts from consolidations. Long periods of indecisive price action build a lot of potential energy that is then released once a stock breaks out of its range. This applies to any asset class on any timeframe because the psychology behind the pattern is exactly the same. The weight of the evidence continues to suggest we want to be long equities, so I’ve taken a look through the Nifty Midcap 150 and identified some of the best bases that are either breaking out or look poised to over the intermediate-term. [Read more…]
This is the recording from the live May Conference Call for Members of the New Allstarcharts India! Before getting into individual stock ideas in India, we’re going to first start with the global macro perspective. Once we identify the direction of the underlying trends from a structural and broader view, then we’ll dive into the NIFTY and SENSEX Indexes on both longer-term and short-term timeframe. We want to look at Large-caps, Small-caps and everything in between before getting into the Sector and Industries themselves like Energy, Banks and Pharma.
This is when we finally break things down to the individual stock scenario with identified risk vs reward opportunities. That is what this is all about – aligning ourselves in the direction of the underlying trend while at the same time identifying where the risk is to make sure the potential reward is skewed exponentially in our favor. You will find that throughout this process we discuss Momentum, Fibonacci and Relative Strength. I encourage you to check out the Education Section so you know exactly where I’m coming from when you hear me mention these tools.
Here is the video in full:
Every month I host a conference call for All Star Charts India Premium Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the India Share Market. We take a look at all of the NSE Indexes and Sectors as well as some of our own custom indexes. At Allstarcharts we have become known around the world for the top/down approach to stocks. After we analyze each of the indexes and sectors and have identified where the strength and weakness lies, then we break it down to individual stock opportunities. By having momentum, relative strength and market trend in our favor, the probabilities of success increase dramatically.
We’ve been bullish towards Indian and Global Stocks as they remain in strong uptrends on any sort of intermediate-term time horizon. I still think this is an environment where we need to be buying weakness in stocks, not selling strength. The weight of the evidence is still pointing to an increased amount of risk appetite, not risk aversion. We will go over a multi-timeframe approach on this conference call where we will start with the longer-term and then work our way down to more short-term to intermediate-term investing ideas. This will also include other assets like the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver and Crude Oil.
I’ll do my best to lay out my weight of the evidence conclusions and walk you step by step with how I got there! This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday May 15th at 7PM IST. Here are the Registration Details: [Read more…]
I think our messaging has been clear that we want to be buying equities, and buying those showing relative strength. The Nifty Financial Services index and the Nifty Bank index are sitting just off all-time highs relative to the Nifty 500, so I’ve done a deep dive into them to highlight the best large, mid, and small cap names on the long side. I’ve also included some names from the Nifty Public Sector (PSU) Bank index, but would note that it’s hitting 2-year lows relative to the Nifty 500 and therefore has a much smaller representation on this list despite being part of the Financial Services sector as a whole. [Read more…]